{"id":4741,"date":"2026-05-31T13:13:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-31T10:13:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/?p=4741"},"modified":"2026-05-31T13:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T10:14:10","slug":"destiny-3-cost-500-million-sony-wont-greenlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/destiny-3-cost-500-million-sony-wont-greenlight\/","title":{"rendered":"Destiny 3 Would Cost Over $500 Million: Why Sony Refuses to Greenlight the Sequel"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Destiny 3 is not in active development. Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier estimates the game would cost over $500 million before marketing. Here’s why Sony won’t greenlight it and what the future holds for Bungie.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Destiny 3 is not in active development, has not been greenlit, and according to Bloomberg journalist Jason Schreier, would cost upwards of $500 million to build from scratch. That figure does not include marketing. With Destiny 2 receiving its final live-service update on June 9, 2026, and Bungie bracing for significant layoffs, the franchise that defined a decade of shared-world shooters is entering its most uncertain chapter yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where Does the $500 Million Figure Come From?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The $500 million estimate comes directly from Schreier’s analysis in his May 2026 video covering the end of Destiny. He frames it as a rough but informed calculation based on industry burn rates and Bungie’s known operational costs. The number is not an official Bungie or Sony figure, but rather a projection based on how modern AAA development economics work at a studio of Bungie’s scale and location.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For context, when Activision originally partnered with Bungie in 2010, the publisher committed $500 million to the entire Destiny IP over a ten-year plan covering multiple games and expansions. Bungie’s COO Pete Parsons clarified at the time that development costs alone were “nowhere near $500 million.” The first Destiny’s development budget was approximately $140 million. The striking takeaway is that a single Destiny 3 could now cost as much as an entire franchise plan did a decade ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Are AAA Budgets Spiralling This High?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Schreier broke down the math using a standard industry formula. The per-person monthly cost at a major US studio, covering salary, benefits, overhead, and miscellaneous expenses, ranges from $10,000 to $20,000. At Bungie’s level in Seattle, where average salaries exceeded $100,000 per year, the higher end of that range applies. For a team of 400 people at $15,000 per month, the monthly burn rate hits $6 million. Over a five-year development cycle, that alone reaches $360 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Push the per-person cost to $20,000, which reflects Seattle market rates more accurately, and the monthly burn climbs to $8 million. Over four years, that totals $384 million. Over five years, it hits $480 million. Add marketing, which can easily add another $100 million or more for a major franchise relaunch, and the $500 million threshold is crossed before the game ever ships. For comparison, Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War reportedly cost $700 million, while Marathon’s development budget has been reported at over $250 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sony’s $3.6 Billion Bungie Bet Gone Wrong<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sony Interactive Entertainment acquired Bungie in 2022 for $3.6 billion, including $1.2 billion earmarked for employee retention. The deal was positioned as the cornerstone of PlayStation’s live-service strategy. As of May 2026, that investment looks dramatically worse than Sony expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sony has recorded a total impairment loss of approximately $765 million on Bungie across two reporting periods: $204 million in November 2025 and roughly $560 million more in the fiscal year 2025 results published in May 2026. That represents over 21% of the original acquisition price written down. Sony acknowledged that Bungie’s title portfolio did not meet expectations, and impaired the full amount of Bungie’s fixed assets except goodwill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The live-service track record surrounding Bungie makes the picture even harder. The Last of Us Online was cancelled before launch. Concord launched with a budget exceeding $250 million and became one of PlayStation’s most publicised commercial failures, shutting down shortly after release. Marathon, Bungie’s extraction shooter, reportedly sold only 1.2 million copies across all platforms in its first weeks, well below expectations for a $250 million-plus project. In this environment, convincing Sony to fund a $500 million Destiny sequel is an extraordinarily difficult proposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Destiny 2 Is Officially Ending Active Development<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On May 21, 2026, Bungie confirmed that Destiny 2’s active development is concluding. The Monument of Triumph update, arriving June 9, 2026, will be the game’s final live-service content drop. After nine years of continuous updates, seasonal content, and major expansions, no further new content is planned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The final update includes a new Pantheon endgame mode with enhanced raid bosses, subclass overhauls including new Aspects for all three classes, a Ward of Dawn rework, the return of the classic Director navigation screen replacing the Portal system, and the permanent addition of Sparrow Racing League. All Destiny 2 content packs will be bundled into a single purchase with permanent price reductions. The game will remain online and playable, mirroring how the original Destiny still operates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Happens to Bungie Now?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to Bloomberg’s reporting, Bungie is planning significant layoffs following the end of Destiny 2 development. The studio does not have a new project lined up for the Destiny development team. Some developers have already been moved to Marathon, but the full Destiny team cannot be absorbed into that project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bungie staff are reportedly pitching new projects internally, including concepts within the Destiny franchise, but none have been greenlit by Sony. One previously reported project, codenamed Payback, which would have been a third-person Destiny spin-off borrowing elements from Warframe and Genshin Impact, was cancelled before ever reaching production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With roughly 800 employees at last count and two major layoff rounds since 2024 that eliminated over 320 positions, the studio is shrinking. Bungie’s own blog post used the phrase “incubating our next games,” which in industry terminology means the conceptual phase before any formal green light.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could AI or Outsourcing Bring the Cost Down?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Schreier acknowledged this possibility in his cost breakdown. AI tools are already being used at Bungie and across the industry for concept art, graphic design, and certain production workflows. Games like Arc Raiders, which reportedly cost $75 million, have demonstrated that smaller teams using AI-assisted pipelines can produce high-quality results at a fraction of traditional AAA budgets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outsourcing to lower-cost regions is another lever. Co-development with studios in Eastern Europe, South Asia, or Southeast Asia can significantly reduce the per-person monthly rate. However, a project the size and ambition of Destiny 3 would still require a large core team at Bungie’s headquarters, and the savings from outsourcing may not be enough to offset the overall budget demands of a five-year development cycle for a franchise-scale live-service shooter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fan Petition and Community Response<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Destiny’s community has responded with visible frustration and passion. A Change.org petition titled “Call on Sony to Make Destiny 3” gathered over 90,000 signatures on its first day and surpassed 114,000 within days. Reddit threads and social media discussions have been flooded with reactions ranging from grief to anger. Players feel that the franchise deserved a better exit plan and that Marathon diverted resources that could have sustained Destiny 2 longer or laid the groundwork for a sequel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, petition campaigns rarely change corporate investment decisions of this magnitude. Without a clear path to profitability for a $500 million-plus project, Sony’s calculus remains firmly against greenlighting Destiny 3 in the current market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Destiny 3 Ever Going to Happen?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is not impossible, but it is far from imminent. As Kotaku’s analysis pointed out, it is difficult to see how Sony ever justifies the $3.6 billion acquisition price without an eventual Destiny 3. The franchise IP is one of the primary assets that gave Bungie its valuation. Abandoning it entirely would make the financial picture even worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In November 2025, data miners claimed that Destiny 3 was in “extremely early development.” Even if those claims were accurate at the time, Bloomberg’s May 2026 reporting indicates that no formal development has been authorised. At the earliest, if a project were greenlit today, industry timelines suggest a release no sooner than 2030 or 2031. For now, Bungie’s entire operational focus is on Marathon’s ongoing live service and pitching whatever comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Questions Players Keep Asking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Will Destiny 2 servers shut down?<\/strong> No. Bungie has confirmed that Destiny 2 will remain online and playable, similar to the original Destiny. Raids, Crucible, and other activities will still be accessible, but no new content will be added after June 9, 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How much did the original Destiny cost to develop?<\/strong> Approximately $140 million for development alone. Activision’s often-cited $500 million figure covered the entire ten-year franchise plan including marketing, multiple games, and expansions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is Bungie based in Seattle so expensive?<\/strong> Seattle is one of the highest cost-of-living cities in the United States and a major tech hub. Developer salaries, office space, and operational costs are significantly higher than in many other development locations. Schreier noted that the average salary at Bungie was over $100,000 per year across all roles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could another studio make Destiny 3 cheaper?<\/strong> Theoretically, a studio in a lower-cost region could reduce the budget, but Destiny’s design philosophy, engine expertise, and creative DNA are deeply tied to Bungie. Handing the franchise to another studio would carry its own significant risks and likely would not reduce the budget as dramatically as it might seem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is Sony’s total loss on Bungie so far?<\/strong> Sony has recorded approximately $765 million in impairment losses on the Bungie acquisition as of May 2026, with analysts suggesting additional write-downs could push the total past $1 billion by year’s end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Destiny 3 is not in active development. Bloomberg’s Jason Schreier estimates the game would cost over $500 million before marketing. Here’s why Sony won’t greenlight it and what the future holds for Bungie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4742,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[285],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gaming-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4741"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4741\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4743,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4741\/revisions\/4743"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gamermarkt.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}